The highest mountain in Europe, volcano Elbrus might erupt in this century. Scientists arrived at this conclusion following the discovery of a colony of mosses at its peak.
The famous volcano in the Caucasus is over two million years old. Last time, it erupted 15-17 centuries ago. However, it might erupt once again within 50 years. Although scientists cannot say for sure whether this will happen or not, they have monitored post-volcanic activity, says the head of the Elbrus Scientific Research Centre of Moscow State University, Natalya Volodicheva.
“The post-volcanic activity is witnessed by the emission of fumarolic gases and the appearance of thermal springs,” says Natalya Volodicheva. “There are lots of thermal mineral springs around Elbrus the temperatures of which are about 21 degrees Celsius on the northern slope, as well as closed springs in several other places, which are even hotter. Travertine mineral water springs can be seen in several places too. All this is typical for regions where ancient and contemporary volcanoes are located,” Natalya Volodicheva said.
There is a need to study the concentration of emitting aerosol and helium to follow up the possible eruption of the volcano. If this is high, it means the volcano is becoming active. At the same time experts should study glaciations, says Natalya Volodicheva.
“Elbrus is covered with a thick layer of ice,” says Natalya Volodicheva. “However, there are no glaciers in the craters on the peak. The temperature on the eastern peak is very high, and the 20-degree temperature has been recorded at a height of 5,621 meters above sea level. Moreover, moss grows on the cracks of this surface. This is impossible under normal conditions. This means the surface is heating up,” Natalya Volodicheva said.
A group of scientists of the Shternberg Astronomical Institute of Moscow State University headed by Vadim Milyukov is working at the Neutrino Observatory located 25 kilometers away from Elbrus. They are studying the fluctuations of the earth’s crust and changes in the interior magmatic centre located under Elbrus using a laser interferometer. “At present, the upper chamber of the volcano is getting heated,” says Vadim Milyukov.
“Either the chamber is getting heated by itself or it receives hot lava from a deep pocket,” says Vadim Milyukov. “We have developed an advance method to control the volcano and are monitoring the resonance characteristics of its magmatic chamber and studying their rate of changes. All this shows that the volcano is getting heated. However, it is difficult to forecast when the volcano will erupt, there is a high probability that something might happen,” Vadim Milyukov said.
However, the scientist insists that there will be no eruption in the near future. Volcanic activity is always accompanied by earthquakes. The seismic activity is linked to the movements of magma before the eruption of a volcano. At present, this is not taking place under Elbrus.
The eruption of Elbrus poses a great danger. The melted ice and snow might flow as muddy slides from the eastern slope at a speed of 72 kilometers per hour and destroy all settlements on the way and reach the administrative centre of Kabardino-Balkaria, Tyrnyauz, where over 20 thousand people live.
from http://english.ruvr.ru/2010/08/02/14236033.html